May you live in interesting times, says a famous Chinese curse. By all measures ,these appear to be interesting times and we seem to be cursed to live through them. So it’s time to do some crystal ball gazing. The fanning flames of Af-Pak war in heights of Hindukush mountains present most unpredictable scenario for future with massive global and regional ramifications. As Pakistan engages itself into the existential battle with the Frankensteins it created, it is faced with another moment of truth in its turbulent history. It now sees some flicker of light at the dark end of Afgan tunnel. The recently held London conference on Af-Pak has veered to the Pak view of grading and sorting Talibans and dealing with the ‘good’ one while vanquishing the ‘bad’ ones with added caveat that any such grading and sorting will be at Pakistan’s bidding alone. If that path is pursued, Afganistan could see a brief era of stability through Taliban co-option and Pakistan realize that elusive dream of strategic depth while India left confused and confounded in backroom of geopolitics. Yet ,like Iraq, it will be long before some sane semblance of peace returns to Afganistan even when the last boot of international coalition forces have left Afganistan. Let us first look at the implications it has for India.
What is the political poker Pakistan will play now on? It will not cease to press hard international community, US in particular, to arm twist India for a favorable settlement on Kashmir. So dialogue will be resumed , notwithstanding all political subterfuge on prosecuting culprits of 26/11 Mumbai carnage. Home Minister P.Chidambaram may be asked to test dialogue- waters through SAARC sidelines. Choice of India’s home minister to re-ignite the Indo-Pak stalled talks will be a politically pregnant move . No harm in talking to Pakistan, goes the chorus of liberal opinion. But talks that Pak sees as not producing outcome favorable to its policy goals may inspire ISI-Military combine to step on the terror pedal with a re-run of 26/11 catastrophe for India.
If one goes by the clues emerging from Indian side, it is this pessimistic scenario that Indian establishment seems to be preparing for. In the background of political consensus to respond to any 26/11 re-run on India, a somber analysis of some desperate events is called for. The first being the news of Chinese cyber attacks on Indian security establishments. A flash war on Indo Pak border will inevitably draw China to save its most trusted ally. This is the likely import of out-going General Deepak Kapoor’s call to Indian armed forces to be ready for a two-front war. No less than the outgoing NSA, M.K.Narayanan ,abandoning all diplomatic niceties, accused China of poking into it’s most sensitive computer networks . India’s message to China may be same that Pakistan has consistently delivered to India as a irredentist state in its short history. When push comes to shove, India is willing to give up its status-quoist pretensions vis-à-vis China.
The stray reports of tunnels on Indo-Pak border may be part of same strategy to out -wit Pak Generals. India’s cold-start military doctrine should see a gentle covert push, through the international border into Pakistan with Indian special forces raiding Laskar’s Lahore hide-outs in a blitzkrieg. And if action-response cycle in heating military cauldron spirals out of control with Pak unsheathing its nuclear sword, India may be prepared.
Look at the feverish activities of National Disaster Management Authority. Through expensive page-long advertisements in the national newspapers, NDMA has been releasing guidelines on public awareness about preparedness in the event of an array of disasters. Most notably those concerned with Chemical(Terrorism) attack, biological attacks and nuclear and radiological emergencies. A radiological emergency management service geared to handle the fall out of a limited nuclear exchange should be seen as a minimum necessary preparation before calling off the bluff of a free falling jehadi state in India’s neighborhood.
India may have finally overcome the strategic paralysis caused by Pakistan’s war of thousand cuts under a nuclear umbrella. Though the chickens of that mis-begotten state policy have now returned home to roost, Pakistan may still chose to go down the nihilistic path as a final homage to its unattainable dream of becoming the fortress of Islam. For India the uncertainty of perishing in wholesale may finally be preferable to certainty of death in retail. Hence it may try to shed its long winding cow web of existential doubts by making a cold start in an October night.
