C-130J Crash: Why the mystery?

  C-130 J Crash: What are the real reasons?

      The crash of  Lockheed Martin Super Hercule  transport plane operated by Indian Air force on 28^th March  2014 is increasingly getting mired into controversy.  A  front page news report on the Indian Express of 23^rd April 23, 2014 further corroborates the evidence of a clumsy attempt at cover up.  One needn't suggest that the report is deliberately planted to test the public opinion on behalf of vested interests. Though major Indian newspapers and influential media houses  are known to act a PR houses of leading arms sellers in the world. The very  reporting containing self-contradictory assertions point  to a deeply disturbing state of affairs  in India’s national security arena in which mainstream  press and government collaborate to fudge the facts  and prevent outflow of truth at the cost of grave harm to national interest.

     The report’s seemingly feeble attempt to attribute the crash to ‘Wake turbulence’  is laughably silly and flies in the face of basic scientific and technical facts.  Though it , in same breath qualifies the  so-called findings  with the statement that a final report is still underway.  So the purpose seems clear. Blame it on the crew  and exonerate the manufacturer who hasn’t even made the voice  recorder data  public till date  as the manufacturer is investigating himself!

    The  technical and scientific facts  would point against ‘wake turbulence’ as a cause of crash.  Wake turbulence is caused by  an aircraft in flight leaving behind extremely volatile vortices  making it dangerous for any tailing  aircraft not maintaining a safe distance.  Of the two  major components of the turbulence,   wingtip vortices and  jet wash created by high-speed gases expelled by jet engines, the former are the real danger due to their longer persistence in air.  These are known to be of concern during take-off and landing but rarely in mid-flight. Besides , military aircrafts are designed to fly in formation controlled by a common command  centre normally resident in the leading plane.  The flight control is transferred to the leaders on board computer making distance separation between planes automatic.  Hercule   is designed to sustain  turbulences of incomparably higher intensity than those created by her powerful engines and flight behavior.  Any good graduate student of mechanical engineering will  discount the possibility of  such a heavy mass  falling prey to rapid air circulation possible on a calm and clear sky over Agra.  The repositories of crashes histories  of the plane make it the first case if turbulence is the cause.  In case the tailing pilot of the C-130J ploughed into wing tip vortex of the leading plane,  the error  lies  surely at the doorstep of the commanding computer module not at that of the crew.  Independent access to flight data recorder and other onboard control data would give real reasons but they are unlikely to be made accessible before an impartial investigation effort. The reason:  the bear bug of national security again that may open up many inconvenient question for the government and manufacturer. Hence the report by Indian express is a helpful   push to the cause of national security.

Possible causes:

"The accident happened just before the identified 'drop zone' when the aircraft, flying at a low level to evade enemy radars, slows down quite a bit to offload paratroopers or equipment. There was no radio exchange between the ill-fated aircraft and the other C-130J in the front... there was no warning,"  According to a report published in another leading national newspaper TOI on 5 April 23, 2014.  

   This would rule out waking turbulence theory.  The another  conspiracy theory floating around pointing to  Chinese faulty parts  would obviously  be a motivated report to deflect attention  as faulty parts, if any, would be exposed in any investigation. Besides Hercules are not manufactured like hamburgers in Mcdonald.  They carry the manufacturing and technological prowess of worlds’ leading super power.  If that too doesn’t stick, we can bring in Pakistan soon enough.

      Accident happened  so fast  at a low altitude that it gave no time to crew to eject from a crashing plane.  A terrestrial projectile attack  would had also given the crew enough time to eject to safety. Was there any such  unidentified assault on the plane  from ground?   Or massive radio interference for a very short duration  from a nearly located source?  The preponderance of  radio-wave emitting  sources  i.e  towers,  low voltage power cables, amateur radios and cell phones etc   makes a low flying plane’s controls vulnerable to jamming.  In any case the final report is awaited.  People of India may know.  Or may not owing to reasons of ‘National Security’ !   At least we  can trust mainstream national press to be on side of those who believe people of India are not the best guardians of their national security.

Lettuce Leaf from Fukushima

Fukushima report and its implications for Indian nuclear establishment

The Fukushima nuclear commission report is out. The truism that a nuclear accident somewhere is an accident everywhere has come to haunt the global nuclear industry due to events at Fukushima Daichi reactors in March 2011. It dashed nuclear industries’ hope for a renaissance owing to growing threat from climate change and looming global energy crisis. The Kundakulam troubles of Indian nuclear establishment were triggered by Fukushima is no secret. The low key activist led agitation that had gone there for years suddenly acquired a momentum that is set to ignite a new debate on safety in India’s nuclear plants.

Briefly, the Fukushima report pins blame largely on human error and terms it as disaster Made-in-Japan. The tight government control aided by a culture of secrecy that discouraged intra-organizational dissent led to power producers Tepco colluding with nuclear regulators to ignore safety regulations and never prepared for a disaster. Images of clueless Japanese workers struggling to control the situation, reported disagreement between authorities and utility over acceptable course of action, uncertainty about safety of food and water, a dearth of consistent and reliable information about the unfolding situation pointed to complete lack of safety standards and was an extremely bad exhibit for Japan’s reputation as a nation with sophisticated high-tech economy.

Dr. Kiyoshi Kurokawa, the panel's chairman Japanese culture as a major impediment.

"What must be admitted — very painfully — is that this was a disaster 'Made in Japan'. Its fundamental causes are to be found in the ingrained conventions of Japanese culture: our reflexive obedience; our reluctance to question authority; our devotion to 'sticking with the program.'



The report points out that the Japanese agencies responsible for overseeing nuclear plant safety were housed in the same department as the agency that's responsible for promoting the benefits of the nuclear industry. The Japanese utility, Tepco, dragged its feet on safety improvements because it would interfere with plant operations. There were no plans to evacuate thousands of nearby people who could be endangered in case of a major radiation leak.

Kurokawa continues,

"only by grasping this mindset can one understand how Japan's nuclear industry managed to avoid absorbing the critical lessons learned from Three Mile Island and Chernobyl; and how it became accepted practice to resist regulatory pressure and cover up small-scale accidents."

As Japan limps back to nuclear power by bringing reactors online after shutting them down for safety concern and facing a most sever power crisis in decades global nuclear industry begins to absorb Fukushima lessons.

What it means for Indian nuclear industry is important to grasp in the light of events Fukushima triggered in India. Kundakulam agitation being the most notable event. Apart from anti-nuclear energy activism surge, it brought PIL in Indian supreme court against nuclear industry led by NPCIL , a government owned PSU under the department of Atomic Energy.

The lack of nuclear literacy for which government is solely responsible is likely to impede the growth of nuclear power generation affecting five year plan targets of booting up nuclear power generation to 20,000MW by 2020. Upcoming projects at Jaitapur and other places will face resistance from public which may be led by ideologues and other vested interests as happened in Kundakulam. The legitimate concerns of public about safety of nuclear reactors can be exploited by a host of vested interests, both with local and global agenda and can become an incomprehensible cauldron of competing interests. All to the detriment of india’s energy security.

Government of India needs to quickly move to put nuclear safety education for public on institutional framework. This apart from resolving regulatory issues like having an independent Nuclear Regulatory Authority not under the tutelage of atomic energy commission are urgent steps needed. The stakeholders like media, public, regulatory agencies and global institutions i.e IAEA need to be brought together in a sustatined dialogue to improve public confidence in nuclear power.

This blog has been continuously following the developments in Indian nuclear sector post Fukushima ans reported on issues. Lately the new BARC chief has Dr Kausik Basu has expressed need for public outreach to promote nuclear energy. But the lack of urgency is evident in DAE as it is a mammoth scientific bureaucracy unsuited for tackling the challenges arising from globalization of nuclear power industry. The nuclear culture of DAE too is Made in Japan. There is very little information available in public domain about nuclear safety standards and protocols followed by India’s nuclear power plants. Security concerns ultimately trump every effort at transparency. But this will not do. Because nuclear accidents are not local as shown by Chernobyl, Three miles Island and now Fukushima. The public outreach and de-mystification of nuclear industry’s secrecy laden culture is essential if nuclear energy is to be a viable option to tackle growing energy crisis.

Atomic energy establishment needs to come up with an open awareness program focused at various segments of stake holders to pre-empt Kundakulam like agitations. Public demand in the events of disasters or otherwise will be simple and straight about safety of food and water like the exasperated US Ambassador in IAEA meeting at Vienna in April told the gathering that the world wanted to know if it was safe to eat lettuce leaf from Fukushima.

IDSA-MEA Seminar- UPA II ‘s controlled blunders.

No one would take a government sponsored seminar seriously unless some minister inaugurated it and stayed back to listen to the key note speeches. But IDSA (www.idsa.in) and Ministry of External Affairs sponsored seminar yesterday wasn’t an ordinary one as the keynote speech was delivered by Foreign Secretary ,Ranjan Mathai himself.
The seminar on strategic export controls gave ample insight into the policy paralysis in the government. Sadly it is now toxically infecting India’s strategic choices too.
Ranjan Mathai spoke about India’s desire to join global export control regimes which was supposed to come to us as a happy bonus after inking Indo-US nuclear deal. But that has been craftily denied by global technology and armament cartels. So having been disappointed in strategic game, Manmohan Singh goes local and extends hand to pick the low hanging fruit (?) called Indo-Pak détente.
The seminar was addressed by top officials from DGFT, Deptt of Atomic Energy and Customs amongst others. The audience mainly comprised of retired diplomats and armed forces generals. Also present were he invitees from US , Japan and Korean governments.
Indian government officials seem to be speaking from same power point slides on exports controls as SCOMET List expertise is now a password to high policy table. DGFT stated that they do no enforcement on SCOMET exports and outsource it completely to Customs. Even though amended FTDR Act gives it powers far more draconian than the Customs Act. When pointed about the dilution of anti-proliferation rules by the government of India in the form of DGFT issued notifications 93 and 53 0f 2012, it was denied that there was any dilution of rules. The notification 93 allows SCOMET exports into India’s Special Economic Zones without an export license virtually rendering the SCOMET list a redundant piece of executive order. The speaker from Customs department rightly pointed to Custom Acts’ revenue centric approach to border controls making non-proliferation legislations a practically unenforceable proposition. Though Customs department didn’t remember how their first SCOMET enforcement case prior to US assault of Iraq terrified the Indian business. The case of Delhi based exporter NEC Engineer is landmark in how not to enforce export controls. The speaker from Deptt of Atomic Energy also appeared more knowledgeable on SCOMET list than the controls on atomic energy related materials. Notification 53 needs to be contested by Deptt of Atomic Energy to safeguard India’s energy security.
CII representative made an eloquent case for liberalizing defense export policy to boot up India’s growing military Industry but any defense related thoughts gives UPA a nightmare and defense exports through public-private partnership that it so wisely initiated also is now an uncared orphan.
 It is matter of concern that the upcoming PIL in Supreme Court of India will declare the ‘catch-all’ sections of WMD Act unconstitutional in national interest. Courts now seem to be the last resort to rectify every misbegotten act of India’s ruling dispensation. Political class can be exonerated here as export controls are an exotic topic reserved for retired and serving civil military officialdom. The hapless Indian tax payer can always be trusted to fund their conference tickets to seminars like yesterday at IDSA.
The world is noticing India’s ‘two steps ahead and one back’ approach in strategic trade control matters. A national policy debate is long overdue on this matter. Hopefully once again, the Supreme court may show the path.
Varsha Bisht. Chief -Editor

India dilutes anti-proliferation rules.

The SCOMET list , notified under the amended Foreign Trade Development and Regulation Act of 1992 reflects India’s commitment to global anti-proliferation efforts. Together with other supportive legislations i.e Weapons of mass destruction Act 2005, the list regulates import and export of dual use technologies. Dual use goods and services are classifies as those tradable that are needed for making common consumer and capital goods but also weapons and munitions including atomic and biological ones.
Notification 93 of 6th January 2012 http://164.100.9.245/Exim/2000/NOT/NOT11/not9310.pdf issued by the Director general of Foreign Trade dilutes these rules in favor of companies operative in India’s special economic zones(SEZ). SEZs are meant to be future power houses of it export economy. Earlier, exporters needed export licenses to supply into SEZ based factories. This requirement has been now dispensed with after the notification 93 came in force. Though the requirement of export licensing for shipments from SEZs remains, the catch lies in liberal border controls that Indian customs administers in case of SEZ exporters. Goods stuffed out of SEZ factories do not require as rigorous customs examination at their port of exports as those arriving from domestic tariff zones. This is likely to increase the incentive for mis-declaration of dual use goods that can be shipped out without export licenses.
The strengthening of export controls that happened during negotiations leading to Indo-US nuclear deal in 2006 had started hurting the free flow of high-technology exports. To ease that pressure , government has now given them a breather through notification 93. Any measure violations ,if noticed in future, of anti-proliferation measures is likely to put the Government under international pressure particularly when its nuclear program is now under greater global scrutiny due to expanding civilian nuclear energy sector.

Nuclear renaissance at cross hurdle of judicial activism

Writ in Supreme court against nuclear energy
Prospects of nuclear energy renaissance post Indo-US nuclear deal now faced with unexpected hurdle of judicial activism in the form of public interest litigation(PIL). Common Cause , the delhi based NGO, an old hand at PILs through its lawyer Prashant Bhushan filed a writ petition no. 464/2011 in the supreme court that came up for hearing on 14th November 2011.
The petitioners are mostly former bureaucrats led by former cabinet secretary TSR Subramanian. An assortment of retired IAS officers having occupied sensitive top positions in government and at one or other time might have been party to decision processes leading to Indo-US nuclear deal. Also included are some former Magsasay ward winners like retired Admiral L Ramdas. The Magsasy award sponsored by Ford Foundation has recently been in news in anti-corruption movement of Anna Hazare when one of demand in the controversial Jan Lokpal bill wanted the Magsasy awardees in the penal to select Lokpal. The lawyer of the petitioners is none other than the irrepressible Prashant Bhushan of Team Anna.
That apart, the writ among other challenges the constitutional validity of nuclear liability act passed by the parliament last year, seeks a safety assessment of all nuclear plants in India, and a comprehensive long term cost- benefit analysis of nuclear power. It aggressively seeks to put an end to construction and proposal of any more nuclear power plants pending safety review. It alleges that governments solitary motive in pushing for nuclear power is at the behest of multi-billion dollar global nuclear industry. The proposed French company Areva supplied nuclear plants in Jaitapur have come for special crititcism for its poor, unsafe and outdated technology from the anti-nuclear energy activists in the petition. Building heavily on public fears post Fukuyama, the petition also calls for establishing an independent regulatory authority to oversee nuclear power sector. , The current regulator, Atomic Energy Regulatory Board( AERB) they argue, is loaded with former atomic energy scientists hence can’t be relied to exercise their authority impartially.
The writ petition came up for hearing on 14th November in the court of Hon’ble Chief Justice of India. The court bluntly informed the lawyer of the petitioners that the issues raised on safety were more based on hearsay, stray newspaper reports rather than hard and unbiased factual analysis. Besides, the court was not an expert on nuclear safety matters. It rightly advised them to approach the concerned of the government i.e deptt of atomic energy. Court was hardly persuaded by Prashant Bhushan’s repeated pleas to intervene on regulatory issue when he learnt that court would not entertain any points concerning safety issues with complex technical implications. It further opined that if issue involved safety of any particular reactor or general safety norms, they could issue notice to the atomic energy department and seek information to alley their apprehension. In case government was not found to be sensitive to the safety aspects, courts were at liberty to intervene in public interest at any time.
The petitioners often referred to proposed Areva reactors in Jaitapur to drive home the point that French firm’s technology was old and unsafe and India was a dumping ground from what had now become prohibitively costly and outdated technology. Besides they were at pains to point out that india was expanding its civilian nuclear program much against prevailing global trend of phasing out nuclear power. Examples of Austria, Germany were pointed out. Dr Gopal Krishnan, a former retired DAE chairman’s articles and statements in media were made rallying points against the Indian nuclear program by Prahsant Bhushan. The learned judges didn’t fail to notice petitioners reference to a particular foreign supplier and hinted at the anomaly in lawyer activists views despite his lack of any competence of nuclear safety issues and comparative economic cost-benefit analysis of nuclear power. The argument clearly had shades of market access battle between operators.
In the prevailing mood of resistance largely led by anti-nuclear activists, it is likely that nuclear program will face renewed resistance at local level. Even though these trends are somewhat global and not localized strictly, nuclear industry is much to blame for the current state of affairs. The safety technologies have leapfrogged since Chernobyl and Three Mile Island accidents happened. Fukushima was hardly about robustness and reliability of safety technologies but more about a freak natural calamity that had lowest odds of disabling a reactor. Yet it happened because there is nothing like hundred percent safe technology anywhere. Nuclear industry due to sensitive proliferation concerns has failed to educate the public about safety standards in latest generation reactors. It needs to build a balanced and careful approach to improve transparency in safety operations without endangering security issues inherent in operation of nuclear power plants.
The blog will follow the development in this court battle when it is resumed and will inform readers as debate progresses.

Sabarmati to Ralegan Sidhi; A Travellers Short Tale

On the day Anna wound up his fast at Ram lila maidan, our ground zero of anti-corrruption crusade, it was flattering to witness history in making. The euphoric air of truimph blew harder with Kejriwal's 'mission accomplished' speech. Many I talked to said they no more felt the abscence of 'living presence' of Gandhi whom they were content to know through school text books or see in rupee bills. (Yes. The rupee bill whose mysterious catwalk is at the heart of the dispute.) They had now a 'real one' standing on the dias before them. A very redemptive moment for a long suffering people.
An enduring mystery of our culture , so providential, that it produces at every hinge point a great man who matches the moment. Or is it merely wish fulfillemnt of a civilization steeped in mythology of Mahabharata where Lord Krishna counsels Arjun to not despair as he is ever re-incarnate in any epoch that sees a decline of 'Dharma'. (Yeda, yeda hi dharmashya glanirbhavati bharat..)? Whatever that was. Anna gave wings to myths and whole nation looked up into the sky with thanksgiving gaze.
This is just the beginning. If Gandhi shifted his earthly office from Sabarmati to Ralegan sidhi, then he will have appoint his new Nehru's, Patels et al, to complete the mission. A 'Team' is ready to fill that vacuous imagination of our history while antagonists are ready to introduce their Jinnahs and juveniles .
If artistic defficiencies of this narrative has trumped your thoughts and you haven't seen the unfolding face of future, then read on...

Kurt Godel and Anna Hazare: Logic of checks and balances

The connection looks so distant and incomprehensible that I begin by fixing some background to it.
Godel was the one of greatest logician who made immense impact upon scientific and philosophical thinking in 20th century. His incompleteness theorems in mathematics helped us understand the foundations of mathematics (logic in particular) and paved way in early twentieth century for development of computing machines that have nearly a century later taken over every aspect of human life. The finer nuances of Godels work are best left to mathematicians but its wider implications can be subject of great interest to us today. The implications for politics are topical considering the developments we see today led by Anna Hazare against corruption.
Constitutional democracies are product of deep political understanding evolving from logic of power and legitimacy in ordering of societies. Their architecture draws sustenance and stability from concept of ‘checks and balances’ necessary for exercise of modern statecraft. Power corrupts and absolute power corrupt absolutely. If so is the wisdom of man concerning the political power then answer lies in distributing it among agents of state in a way that their functions act as a checks on each other’s behavior and the resultant outcome is a balance of power that seeks to further larger public good. Though such arrangements seems to function and democratic societies always swear by their faith in them. However their logical foundations have been rarely questioned. Implicitly constitutional democracies abhor the idea of empowering individuals and build institutions that honour the maxim of ‘checks and balances’. Therefore restoring balance of institutional power becomes a logical remedy against malfunctions.
Then what explains the crisis in our polity today raised by Anna Hazare? And how is Godel, a mathematician with little association and interest in politics relevant to the crisis at hand? The answer lies at understanding of the logical structure of our political institutions that are comprehensible to common citizen merely as a dogma rather that an instrument designed with intelligence to serve his needs. The dogma which Godel demolished in realm of logic and forever altered man’s intellectual and philosophical landscape. What did Godel say? Godel said for mathematical systems that rules of a system can not be understood with the available resources in that system alone. One must transit to higher set to understand the lower set of rules. Though hard and difficult to map this for a political process, a rough effort should interpret its consequences this way: the logic of ‘checks and balances’ in designing systems of governance will appear as dogma to elements in that system whose credibility has been consistently eroded . Hence the desire to over through it even swearing by the same rules will appear as face of resistance to it. That’s the most covert and seditious enemy of rule based systems.
Anna’s movement is a consequence of this political dogma that preached ‘checks and balances’ as the necessary cornerstone of a constitutional democracy. Partly because the beneficiaries of that system perpetuated that dogma and prevented efforts to probe its infirm logical foundation. Which translated else way would mean they never demonstrated the logical honesty in playing by those rules. The result was a vast segment of that society, that we see lined up behind Anna today, lost all faith in even limited efficacy of logic and hence this putsch. An anti-constitutional putsch that seeks to bring revolution through legislation and ,paradoxically, swears by those very axioms of ‘checks and balances’.
We now know that Jan Lok pal bill doesn’t supplement Indian constitution but seeks to supplant it. And Ann’a people are least to blame for it. It stands against an entirely compromised political establishment. That also explains the uncertainty of outcome associated with any dialogue. The positions are deeply fundamental and profoundly ideological, now arbitrated by lack of reason on both sides. UPAs fall now seems to be the easiest way out of this illogical impasse unless it manages an inspirational jump to summon a higher level of political imagination to restore sanity in polity.
In detailed biography of Kurt Gödel, it is mentioned that he had found a loophole in the American Constitution which could allow a Fascist type government to legally take power in some special set of circumstances. During his U.S. citizenship examination, sponsored by Einstein as a witness, the judge inquired about his German passport (given to him after Austria was taken over by Nazi Germany), and said that by coming to the U.S. he would be safe from the likes of Hitler. Gödel replied that such was not entirely the case, and that he could explain how a fascist dictator could come to power in the U.S.
Has anyone an idea of what Gödel had found in the U.S. constitution that would make him think in this manner ? Before proceeding for his citizenship oath, he is said to have discussed this possibility with Einstein who dissuaded him from discussing that with the judge if ever discussions came to that. Einstien feared that judge may reject Kurt Godel’s citizenship application.
Logical systems like constitutional democracies will continue to face assault from elements of those systems that continually test her limits. That’s what gives it an organic and evolutionary character. Those moments also test the leadership and imagination of the actors in that theatre. Anna’s movement can be regarded one such moment, bizarre , unsuspecting and spontaneous it may look today, it will test the deeper strands of our faith in constitutional democracy. Where it will end is today anybody’s guess. But by politicizing the vast middle class of India which has till date willingly or otherwise remained a dormant and withdrawn actor in Indian polity, it may have restored the sapping spirit of constitutionalism and thereby , paradoxically once again, saved it from its shaking logical foundations.